simplicité

How is the US able to spend so much more than its Income?

2009-05-31T00:38:00.002+05:30

I had earlier promised to explain how the US has a savings rate of -7% (yes negative) and how it is funded.

The most important factors are :

1. USD as a Global Reserve Currency:

The US has a spectacular credit rating which has enabled the dollar to become the globel reserve currency, meaning that the probability of the US Govt defaulting on its loans is very low which in turn means US Dollar will be a very strong and stable currency. Every country has to hold reserves of some foreign currency/gold in order to save itself from potential political/financial crises. Hence most of rest of the world holds US dollars. Holding US dollar in terms of currency notes don’t give any returns, so they are used to buy US Treasury bonds. The bondholder has actually lent money to the US Govt.

2. Global Trade:

Most of the commodities (Oil, Gold, Silver etc.) are traded on USD globally. This means buyers and sellers of these commodities have to hold dollars. Hence there is a constant demand for dollars across the globe. Oil plays a very important role here since it is the backbone of every single economy in this world. Whichever currency in which Oil is traded, rules the world. There are theories which suggest that the reason behind Iraq attacks is that Saddam Hussein wanted to sell Oil in Euros which threatened the dollar dominance in the world. Same reason for potential attacks on Iran.

3. Artificially low interest rates:

Since the begining of the 21st century, the US has seen a period of artificially low interest rates. This was done initially to save the US Economy from the 2000-01 recession which was worsened by the 9/11 attacks. The economy made a smart bounceback because of the low interest rates. Consumption is inversely proportional to interest rates. When the interest rates are high, there is an incentive to save and when the interest rates are low, there is an incentive to borrow and spend. Hence the US consumers kept borrowing which was funded by the rest of the world.

4. Absence of an Institution called Family:

I have borrowed this point from M R Venkatesh, a noted economist from Swadeshi Jagran Manch. He says the prime difference between the saving nature among Indians and Americans is that the family culture in India is a huge deterrent to reckless spending. It is very common to see that Indians start accumulating wealth after marriage. This, he says is absent in America. The presence of Social Security and Healthcare benefits further redice incentive to save.

5. The strong consuming nature of the US:

The US is a very strong consumer in the international market. They import much more than they export, which is evident from their trade deficit year after year. The US pays dollars to exporters (Say China, Japan, Thailand, Korea, India etc.). These countries do not convert these dollars to their own currencies. Instead they are used to boost the forex reserves of the country. This in turn increases US debt.

6. Emergence of South Asia as a cheap manufacturing hub:

South asia’s emergence as a cheap manufacturing hub shifted US industries from manufacturing to services. This increased their imports massively as there was no incentive to produce the goods inland when they could be imported for a fraction of the cost. This is actually a result of the strong dollar and weak south asian currencies since weak currencies make exporting very easy.

All the points listed above are strongly inter-related and you could find a lot of cause-effect relationships. They could not have individually led to the present situation but collectively they have.

My take on Punjab Violence

2009-05-25T18:43:00.002+05:30

Yesterday, after a gurudhwara attack in Vienna, Punjab erupted violently resulting in damage to buses, trains and an ATM , which means taxpayers money has gone down the drain. And how does our "Educated Honest PM" react? Check this link.

It doesn't matter whether crime is committed by Indians or others. The PM should have condemned the people behind these attack. Instead, he's requesting them to stop their violent behaviour.

God Save India from spineless people.

Why should the US Govt just let the recession continue rather than meddling with it?

2009-05-23T18:03:00.001+05:30

To understand this we need to know about the history of US consumer spending. The US in the past 10-15 years has been a borrow and spend economy, evident from their evergrowing National debt. For every 100$ earned, they have been spending 107$. The remaining 7$ gap is bridged by other countries.( I shall explain this in a later article.) We all know this model is unsustainable, since one can’t keep spening more than one’s income. The house bubble burst was the trigger(not the cause) for this impending recession.

Now after the bubble burst, the US consumer has understood that he can’t keep spending more than his income and hence has cut down on his spending, which is actually good for both the US and the rest of the world. Since this cutting down has happened at a rapid pace, the recession is equally harsh and has its repurcussions in the way of Job losses and monetary losses.

What is the US Government doing now? They have cut down interest rates to almost 0% (a mistake they did in 2001 which led to the house market bubble) and are spending like crazy in the economy in the name of their stimulus plan. This is merely encouraging the consumer, who now has consciously cut down his spending, to spend more. This not only increases future recession possibilities but also increases inflation risk a lot.

My bottomline : The US Govt is again trying to interfere with the market to create skewed incentives for borrowers and is taking the economy to a yet another unstable period of growth rather than letting the economy recede and start stable growth without debt burden.

Community Blog

2009-05-23T17:58:00.002+05:30

A few of us from IIM Calcutta have started this community blog Strat.in. I've just joined them.

Will be posting both here and Strat.in from now on.

My 2 cents on Exit Polls

2009-05-14T10:15:00.004+05:30

Yesterday, I was looking at the Exit poll results of 2009 Elections on CNN-IBN and NDTV. They were giving all sorts of projections based on their survey.

In the CNN IBN survey, I had a look at the Bihar numbers(any state would do, I took Bihar since they had a round 40 seats which can easily divide any number). There were 1960 respondents from Bihar, which means 49 respondents per constituency. I assume each constituency as a few lac voters. How can 49 people represent these few lac voters?

I don't believe NDTV either, who have not even mentioned their sample size.

Hence I don't like to believe these numbers but would like to watch out for Saturday the 16th.

Who do you want to serve Mr. Vaiko?

2009-04-17T09:05:00.007+05:30

Vaiko made this statement Yesterday.

‘My sole aim is to protect Lankan Tamils’

If you want to protect Lankan Tamils why are you contesting from India? Why don't you jump off into the sea, swim through, get across to Sri Lanka and serve them there. Why do you want to use Indian resources to save Sri Lankan tamils when India has enough problems for herself?

I always fail to understand the "Tamil Eelam" issue which is prevalent in Tamilnadu. All politicians are sympathetic towards SriLankan tamils who are dying. Why aren't they interested in the Indian tamils that are dying? Why are we being sympathetic? Just because they speak the same language as ours. Is that sound and rational?

I understand India has to be concerned because Sri Lanka is our sea neighbour. But we have to stop there. We should have our self interest first. Everything else comes next. Did Vaiko react so much to the 26/11 attacks? He is more concerned with Sri Lankans dying than with Indians dying.

Bottomline : Just have your self interest when you vote. Don't think about Lankan Tamils, Sri Lanka is not in India. Do we worry about dying Combodians? Just make sure you vote with the utmost selfish motive, which is India's self interest.

Mr Mulayam, can you draw the payoff diagram of a forward?

2009-04-14T10:01:00.002+05:30

I've been trying to download Samajwadi Party manifesto for around 45 minutes yesterday, before I realized this fact. How can a party which wants computers banned put up its manifesto online? Shit

When I was googling, I found this SP website, I started wondering. Why does SP have a website? Their policy is that if a job can be done manually, then computers should not be allowed to do it. Why not put a 24 hr Phone line and employ a poor guy to answer calls from anxious people who would like better their lives by knowing about SP.

SP wants to ban machines that substitute human labour. So let's ban buses, trains and flights, people can walk/crawl/swim to their destinations right. Let's ban mixers and grinders, people can use the old fashioned "Aatu Kal"(I don't know how to call it in English, Its a 2 stone thingy used to grind things.)

I'm reiterating Arun Shourie here. Think of Mr. Mulayam representing India in a G-20 meet with bundles of paper(read without a Laptop , without a mobile , talking in Bhojpuri/Hindi)

I agree the majority of India doesn't have access to either computers or English. But that doesn't mean these should be banned for the welfare of the country. But a manifesto like this only shows immaturity and lack of vision of the SP leadership. Poor can't be made better by bringing the rich to them. Poor can only be made better by taking them towards the rich.

How should MK deal with Vaiko after his speech about Tamil Eelam Issue

2009-04-10T12:23:00.003+05:30

What should be M Karunanidhi's Strategy after Vaiko's recent speech about Tamil Eelam Issue.

There are 3 options in front of MK.

1. Arrest Vaiko under NSA
2. Ignore him
3. File a complaint but don't arrest

If MK has to maximize his chances in Tamilnadu in the Lok Sabha Election 2009, what should he do?

1. If Vaiko is arrested, it can make Vaiko a war-hero. He'll become bigger than what he is now. He'll become a victim rather than a culprit in the eyes of Tamilnadu Voters. This can actually accelerate the turn in tide against MK and worsen his position in the LS Polls.

2. If Vaiko is ignored, he'll make couple more speeches on this issue and try to make use of this for political gains. But this can be interpreted as incapability on the state government to maintain law and order. Again not positive at all for MK, but definitely better than Option 1

3. File a complaint against Vaiko but don't arrest him. This will show that the state doesn't want these speeches but it doesn't want Vaiko to use the arrest to his advantage. Afterall, DMK doesn't want to convert Vaiko into another Varun Gandhi.

What a Shame?

2009-04-07T07:12:00.003+05:30

When the IPL, was shifted from India to South Africa, India gave this very famous reason. " In view of the upcoming elections, we don't have enough security cover for IPL."

I felt ashamed when I read this page. India's not able to provide security cover for IPL in spite of holding elections in 5 stages, whereas South Africa is able to provide cover though they hold elections in just one stage.

Shame on u India!

Improper Reporting by Newspapers and websites

2009-03-31T16:16:00.005+05:30

If you have a look at this article, it says the Rupee gained 18 paise against the dollar.

Let's make a few things straight

1 Rupee = 100 paise

Is it possible for rupee to gain 18 paise and equal 118 paise. It's rubbish. It is impossible for a currency to appreciate against another currency in its own terms.

What the newspaper tries to explain is that, 1 USD has depreciated by 18 paise.

The newspaper here tries to put the information in terms of Rupee. Then, the article should have said Rupee gains xxx cents. But this is not practical because the cent gain by Rupee will be very very little, hence the mistake these people do.

Manmohan Singh - Spineless?

2009-03-26T19:52:00.004+05:30

Yesterday Congress party announced their manifesto and Manmohan Singh announced that he will not be contesting the Lok Sabha Polls.

I can understand he getting nominated to Rajya Sabha in 2004 post the elections because he was not in contention before the Polls, and hence was not given a party ticket.

But the situation is different now. He is Congress' PM Candidate. Doesn't that mean he has to contest Lok Sabha polls and win his way to Prime Ministership? The reason he gave was really funny. He cited health reasons for not contesting. But he doesn't mind being PM in spite of his health concerns.

Do we want a PM who's just a puppet and doesn't even have the guts to contests Polls?

Who's spreading more cummunal hatred?

2009-03-23T23:19:00.004+05:30

Media space in the last few days have been dominated by Varun Gandhi who's accused of spreading communal hatred. He is accused of talking in front of hundreds of hindus against hindus. While this article in no way tries to support Varun, I'd like to question the media.

What the hell is the media doing? CNN-IBN and NDTV are abuzz with the videos being shown hundreds of times which the entire country is watching. How are these TV channels spreading communal harmony by showing these videos throughout the day?

Apparently Varun Gandhi's hate speech happened on 6th March 2009 whereas the videos were submited to the Election Commission and were shown on TV only on 17th March 2009. Does it take 11 days to make a CD?

Economics of IPL Venue Change (update1)

2009-03-22T21:57:00.012+05:30

It's an honest attempt at calculating IPL Venue shift's impact on India's GDP.

No. of Teams = 8
No. of Players in a team = 15
Team Size = 20 (Players + Coach + Manager + Physio etc.)
No. of Foreign Players in Each team = 4(assumption)
Duration = 45 Days

Consolidated team size = 20*8 = 160
No. of matches = 2*8C2 + 2 + 1 = 59

1. Hotel Accomodation = 160 * 45 * 5000 = 3.6 Crores (5000 per head per night)

2. Food Expenditure = 160 * 45 * 3 * 1000 = 2.16 Crores (1000 per meal)

3. Travel Expenses = 160 * 7 * 2 * 8000 = 1.792 Crores (7 away matches per team, 8000 per business class one-way ticket)

4. Ticket Revenue = 59 * 40000 * 500 = 118 Crores (Avg. Audience = 40000, Avg. Ticket Price = 500)

5. Shopping by Foreign Players = 4 * 8* 2 * 100000 = 0.64 Crores (Player including his girlfriend each shopping for 1 Lac)

6. Round Trip Travel from home to stadium by Audience = 40000/2 * 59 * 0.1 * 50 * 2 = 1.18 Crores (40000 Crowd, 2 per vehicle, 5km distance from Home to Stadium, 50kmpl Mileage, 50 Rupees per litre of Petrol)

7. Stadium Shopping by the Crowd = 59 * 40000 * 100 = 23.6 Crores (assuming Avg Spending on food and other merchandise = 100)

Total GDP Impact = 150.972 Crores

I'm sure I've left some expenses. Comments are invited to improve the calculations.

P.S All calculations are done in Indian National Rupee(INR)

Sachin - Epitome of Humbleness

2008-12-16T04:50:00.006+05:30

I have an exam tomorrow, but what the hell - India won.

I am updating my blog almost after 1 year but what better occasion than when Sachin scored the winning runs in a next to impossible chase.

Sachin played an innings of his life, one he will never forget(It is easy to forget a 100 when one has scored almost 100 international hundreds). But what impressed me more was his words after the match "What happened in Mumbai was extremely unfortunate and I don't think by India winning or my scoring hundreds, people who have lost their dear and loved ones would feel better. It's a terrible loss and our hearts are with them. All I can say is that in whatever way we can contribute to make them feel better, we'll make that effort." He never even tried to make his 100 look great, something that CNN-IBN did.

I have never seen Sachin jump out with joy after a victory. What the hell, he scored the winning runs which he wanted to do for a very long time. I'm sure he was always reminded of the Chepauk debacle in 1999 against Pakistan when he was in the middle. But he kept his cool and played second fiddle to Yuvraj, which I consider very mature. I'll have to thank Yuvraj for letting Sachin score his hundred by giving him the strike. That was very mature of Yuvraj.

Once the game was over, Sachin was completely surrounded by the ground workers, how I wish I were one of them. Sachin was extremely humble that he didn't rush out when they rushed in. He acknowledged them and shook hands.

I don't claim this to be a flawless innings, he was dropped earlier in the day. He got beaten a few times. But the sheer pleasure I get when I see Sachin perform is unmatchable. Every success of his is mine. Every failure of his is mine. My Gtalk Status always reflects Sachin's mood. Very sad we may not be witness to the genius' game for long. I don't know if I will continue to watch cricket post 2011.

What impresses me game after game is the childlike enthusiasm that Sachin brings to the game. Sachin said after the match about his dreams, "I always wanted to score a century and win a match for India. I always wanted to score the winning runs". Looks like a dream of a debutant. Never seen a veteran having such dreams.

I can't undermine the effort of Sehwag, without whom this victory was unthinkable. Dhoni is still on his golden patch, winning all 4 tests he captained. This team looks like a potential contender for 2011 cup.

I'd like to end it with a quote from Shawshank Redemption - "I find I'm so excited, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only a free man can feel, a free man at the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope I can make it across the border. I hope to see my friend, and shake his hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope. "

Mile sur Mera Tumhara

2008-01-12T12:41:00.000+05:30

Wow! wat an amazing video.

Lots of nostalgic memories. I have seen this video some 50 times in the past 24 hours. My wingmates have already decided to throw me out of the wing.

See it for yourself

Home Trip 3

2008-01-09T19:09:00.001+05:30

This is not the third part of the movie series called Home trip. It is a series of humorous(supposedly) incidents on my third trip to home(Chennai) from Calcutta.

It is evening 6 pm on 3rd Jan 2008. I am checking IIMC's student forums. The classes on friday(4th Jan ) are cancelled due to INTAGLIO Business fest. I have been planning to go home for sometime. So this is it. If I go home by tonight, I can spend 5 days @ home by bunking next monday & tuesday. I start asking ppl there r any important things to be done in the next 5 days.

6.15 : None of the airfare websites list flights on 3rd Jan as they book tickets only up to 6 hrs in advance.

6.30: I open all airline websites (low-cost,high-cost and middle-cost) to check the flights available.

6.35: Kingfisher runs from Calcutta to Chennai @ 9:05 pm. This is the best flight available . I wanted to fly kingfisher for a long time. This is the occasion. I start filling the long forms. Its gonna take at least 10 mins.

6.45: Finished filling forms on Kingfisher Website . Still not completely sure whether to go home or not.

6.50: Press Submit after 5 mins of deep thought. " Sorry, your login is timed out". Shit! I start filling the form again. Kingfisher says" You have only 10 minutes left to book the 9:05 flight ticket"

6.58: Finished the form for the second time. Press submit immediately.

6.59: Kingfisher : "Your ticket is confirmed for the IT 732 flight on 3rd January 2008 from Calcutta to Chennai"

7.00: I ask Vinay Betala, the 20-year old MBA grad(youngest IIMCian ever) to print the ticket.

7.01 : I call the security for a Cab to airport. ( IIMC is in Joka which is a good 25 Kms from the airport. Normally it takes more time to travel from Calcutta Airport to IIMC than it takes from Calcutta to Chennai.)

7.04: I leave my room with my laptop bag & a coupla important pieces of clothing.

7.06: I run down the stairs and get into the Cab.

7.08: I get to the main gate of IIMC. I ask the Cab driver to wait for a coupla mins as I wanna draw some money from SBI ATM. I get down and rush into the ATM barely noticing something stuck on the door. It looks something like "Don't use this ATM". I didnt notice that properly. I insert my card & take out the 1000 Rs I needed. I turn back with a smile thinking of the fool who had stuck that notice outside the ATM door. I press the switch to open the ATM door. Nothing happened. Again. Nothing again. Now I realize. Thats why the notice on the door. I am stuck inside, the door can be opened only from outside.

7.10: I call Mrinal and ask him to come out & rescue me. He is happily doing geelagiri(flirting) with his girlfriend. He asks me to wait there and assures to send Rishi, another geelagiri.

7:20: I wait for 10 mins. No sings of Mrinal or Rishi. Suddenly God showers some luck on me. He sends a guy who wants to draw cash. I start smiling again. I have a probability of 0.1 to reach the airport on time. I thank that guy and get into the cab again.

7.25: I ask the cab driver to go as fast as possible. I promise to give him 20 rs extra if he takes me to the airport by 8 30.

7.45: No chances of reaching there by 8 30. I increase the incentive to rs. 40 now.

8:00: Cab drives gives gaalis( Nice swear words) as there is too much traffic and he is not able to drive faster than 35 kmph.

8.25: I am 15 mins within reach of the airport. Here it is, there is a CPI procession blocking traffic. I am screwed.

8.28: Driver takes a bypass route and is going real fast.

8.38: Drives says that I can reach the airport in 5 mins.

8.45: I reach the airport. :) The meter showed Rs.400. I give him a 500 rs note and ask him for 50 bucks change. He gives his gaalis again . He tells me that I screwed his taxi by asking him to drive fast in this traffic.

8.50: I forego that 50 Rs. and reach the Kingfisher Counter @ the airport. It is totally deserted except for a couple of Kingfisher 'babes'.

8.54: I have received my ticket & standing for security check. Damn! I have not attached the Kingfisher tag on my laptop bag.

8.56: I run to the nearest Air Deccan counter and request for a tag. He gives me a cold stare and asks me to go to the Kingfisher counter and get the tag.

8.58: I am back in the queue. Damn! There are 4 people ahead of me.

9.01: Security over. Waiting to get into the bus. There are around 50 people in the queue. None of them are Kingfisher passengers. All Deccan Passengers.

9.02: A Kingfisher employee(Again sent by God) sees my ticket from far and escorts me away separately and boards me into an already-waiting-for-5-mins-bus.

9.04: I board the flight with a broad smile. I can afford to smile now.

9.08: The flight takes off.

Finally Mission accomplished. Kingfisher is a great experience. Had lots of fun. I reach home around midnight.

Sorries again for a long post.

Claimer: The characters and incidents mentioned here are really true and not fictional. Any resemblance to a fictional story is truly coincidental.

A Beautiful year called 2007 !!!

2008-01-05T19:34:00.000+05:30

Wow, what a roller coaster ride was 2007. It was not excellent, it is not the right word. It was BEAUTIFUL. I can say this year changed my life completely.

Timeline:

Prologue:
I waved at my friends. The train began its journey rather slowly. It was a moment which made me feel very bad about not making it to the tour. Yes, I had missed the final year tour to north india as I was expecting a couple of IIM interview calls early in the year 2007. Can you believe it? I consoled myself saying it was my decision, though a rather tough one. It was a slow walk towards the parking lot with Harish( he had also missed the tour). I started thinking about my CAT results. TIME key gave me 79 in Quant, 58 in DI, and -8 in Verbal(Yes, it is negative 8). I seriously wished TIME was wrong this time. Lets see what happens

Now we are all set for the roller coaster ride.

January 1 2007 : This was like any other year. It started off with the regular new year wishes. I had no clue it would turn out to be so wonderful.

January 2 2007: This was the day. The day when IIMs roll out CAT results and interview calls. There were some rumours floating around that results may not be out that day. I sat on my comp since early morning at 6. Yeah I got up @ 6 ! As expected internet speed was pathetic. I kept on refreshing the 6 IIM sites every minute or so. I got fed up near the afternoon and I had stopped. And then, a phone call from a friend. CAT results were out. I jumped out to check mine. A,B,C,L,I - no traces of results. Finally, K site had it. I had got an overall of 99.93 percentile with very good scores in Quant and DI. In verbal, surprisingly I had got a whooping 27, with a 96.31 percentile. It was whooping considering TIME had given me -8. I was sure of a BLACKI(it represents all 6 IIM calls and considered a great feat. Slowly IIMs started rolling out their lists.

January 3 2007: I had received calls from A,C,K and I. B and K were yet to disclose their lists. I was checking B site very anxiously. It wont load. I must have presses F5 atleast a 100 times. My Mentor(also Friend) Srikanth called me and told me that IIMB list is out. Since their website was down, they announce results over the phone. I called the admissions office . Expectedly, the line was engaged. I tried around 20-25 times and then finally it rang. A lady picked up my call and asked for my reg no. Sorry sir, she said. I was aghast. It must have been some error somewhere. I asked my mom to call . Same response again. I was totally aghast. Even an IIML call didnt help. I wanted a BLACKI, but now it is a LACKI. I kept cribbing for the next few days. It was 4-5 days later I realized that I was extremely lucky to get 5 calls from IIMs. There were only around 3000 people who got atleast 1 call from the IIMs.

January 7 2007: XAT 2007 exam day. A lot of my friends were there. Some had IIM calls. Others didnt. That didnt matter. Everyone who was there wanted XLRI calls. I did the exam well.

January 20 2007: XAT results out. I had 2 calls from XLRI.

January 21 2007: FMS exam. High hopes. Decent exam

February 6 2007: IIFT interview @ Spencer Plaza, Chennai. My first ever interview for a B school. Bad GD. Decent Interview. I was still coming to terms with the whole process of selection. I have to be lucky to convert this.

February 8 2007 : IIMK interview @ Bangalore. I had taken the previous day train to Bangalore. Bangalore was boiling due to the Kaveri issue. Since I am from Chennai, It was quite a risk going to Karnataka as Kaveri interim order was just issued. I somehow made it to the hotel and reached the interview spot on time. This time, it was a decent GD and a good interview. Hopes of first convert.

February 12 2007: Time for IIM L interview. Good GD and a decent interview. Hopes of 2nd convert.

February 14 2007: It was supposed to be Valentine's day. But I had a date with IIM I @ Bangalore. It was a disaster to say the least. I was screwed left right and centre on technicals. I had no hopes though the GD was decent. No hopes.

March 6 2007: XLRI Interview for their PMIR program. Bad GD. Bad Interview. Absolutely no hopes.

March 8 2007 : IIMA interview, Bangalore again. Decent GD. Good interview except a last minute hiccup which sealed the fate. Still faint hopes.

March 11 2007: ATM test for PGDCM @ IIMC

March 12 2007 : IIMC interview, for a change an IIM interview in Chennai. Good GD. Good interview. Good hopes

March 12 2007 : XLRI interview for Business Mgmt program. Not much enthu left. I am @ the centre. My friends calls up to tell me that I have been selected by IIFT. I cant believe it. He said , "Congrats Natarajan Sankar". "Damn, I am M.Natrajan" I said. Pretty bad news before an intrerview.Bad interview. I Dont give a shit anymore. I wanna see the world cup matches.

March 21 2007: I join TIME as a Part Time Maths Faculty. I didnt have anything to do in the next 2 1/2 months. I still take classes when I get the time.

April 12 2007: IIM results were to be released on this day. Damn Mr.Arjun Singh. Results delayed due to OBC issue.

April 27 2007: Results day. IIMC comes out with the list first. The defining moment. I have made it. Indore comes next, I am waitlisted. I dont care anymore. I only wanted to check IIMA result. In the meanwhile I have cleared K and waitlisted by L. A gives me a reject in the evening. Slight bad feelings. I was overwhelmingly happy as I am proceeding to Joka.

May 2007: I dont remember the exact dates. I finished my 8th semester exams. Just a mere formality. I almost slept in a couple of exams. Thankfully I cleared all the exams, otherwise all the effort would have gone down the drain.

June 9 2007: My sister's Birthday. The day TIME gave all of us a party. I also gave a very enthu filled talk to the subsequent batch that is giving CAT.

June 17 2007: I reach Calcutta, I prefer to call it Calcutta. This is my home for the next 2 years. I come out of south India for the first time. It was my first flight. So many firsts this year. I had come with my family and planned a small holiday @ Calcutta.

June 23 2007: I reach IIMC. I remember the 'Early Days @ Joka' video as entered the campus. I am all set to be a IIMCian.

September 2007: Time to lose our sleep for the next few weeks. CV making starts. I never knew writing 1 page about myself was so difficult.

October 2007 : CV making is over. CV is frozen before the Durga Puja(DP) hols. I come home for the 1st time after joining IIMC. I could not have a moment of fun as a pile of forms for Summer internships awaited me.

November 2007: The shortlists have started trickling in. People who saw my CV told me that I can expect around 5-6 interview shortlists. It was almost a disaster as i had not made into any of the first 14 lists. Then Came Goldman Sachs and a small ray of hope. I was shortlisted by GS. I was ecstatic. Then I had shortlists from Merrill Lynch and ABN Amro Bank. Thats it. Only 3 shortlists. I didnt want more. If I cannot convert 1 among 3, I cannot convert 1 amoing 30.

November 12 2007: The night when it was announced that GS was not coming to the campus due to security issues. Just 1 more day left for the Summers.

November 13 2007: The day in which I did nothing apart from attending the Merrill Lynch talk.

November 14 2007: We were assembled at the auditorium by 7 am. We had breakfast and the process begun @ 8. I was waiting for my turn. My registration number was announced @ 0830 and I had to attend the Merrill Lynch interview. I was in the waiting room for around 10 minutes before I was called in for the interview. 1st interview is over. I was sent in to another room for another interview. Then I had 2 more rounds of interviews before I was given an offer in Merrill Lynch Hongkong. It was around 10 am when I came out and returned to the auditorium. I realised that less than 25 people have been placed on campus. I have been very lucky. I could see happy faces, sobbing faces and indifferent faces. Some were confused, some were tense. But I was very happy. Mission Accomplished. I can relax now.

November 15 2007: My 2nd trip to home. This trip was more enjoyable as I could spend time with my sister and family.

December 31 2007: I am thankful to all who helped me and made my year beautiful. Thank you all !!

Though this year was beautiful it had a few sad memories. A close friend of mine could not clear CAT in spite of lots of efforts. I had to leave my family and friends and go to a far uncertain place. Bye bye 2007 ! Please return as 2008 and makemy family and friends' lives better.

~ Sorry for a very very long post~

Finally a convert !!!!!!!!!

2007-04-28T22:01:00.000+05:30

I am now into what is called as Joka Management Institute (also called IIM Calcutta) .

The fact that I am into one of the best management institutes would have been impossible without cooperation from my friends, family ,TIME faculty and co - students . Thank you very much for the cooperation.

Thank you guys!!!!! I would like to help you as much as possible in your endeavours.

PS:
IIM Calls : A,C,L,I,K
Converts : C,K,L
WL : I

Who is more punishable?

2007-04-14T15:30:00.000+05:30

This blog is with reference to the recent judgement ruling Allister Pereira guilty in a hit and run case back in November 2006.

Pereira was supposedly under the influence of alcohol when he drove his car into the pavement which resulted in 7 deaths and another 8 people getting injured. Let us see what the possible reasons are for this mishap.

1. Drunken Driving

2. More importantly, the fact that those people were sleeping on the pavement.

As Pereira has been given a less than justified punishment of 6 months, we only criticize the police for not investigating properly. Are we missing the bigger picture somewhere?

We always blame somebody for an event and fail to understand why it happens and never take precautionary steps.

Had he not been under the influence of alcohol , but if the brakes of the car had failed he would still have killed those people.

Now let us understand why people sleep on the pavement. They do because they do not have a proper home to sleep. Why people do not have a home to sleep? Because people without a home keep giving birth to children even if they do not have the capability to take of themselves. They have a right to keep themselves hungry. They do not have a right to keep their children hungry. How long will they hope that their lives will get better in the future? Please understand that by giving birth to children more and more they are only worsening their lives. Do you want your children to suffer like you do. First get yourself a decent home that can take care of your needs. Even if you take some 20 years to get that, it is worth it. First make sure you can support your child's basic needs.

You do not have any right do deny children their basic rights citing your economic status. Please do think over it. Do you want your children to sell lottery tickets on roads just because you are not economically sound? Why should your children suffer because you could not control your lust?

Think through and make your lives better

( Sorry if I had hurt any of your sentiments , but I had to say this in this way only )

What a DAY !!!!!!!!

2007-01-31T21:49:00.000+05:30

What a day we have had!!!!!!! When I woke up from my bed, a great news was waiting to cheer me. Yes, it is the TATA- CORUS deal. This is the largest deal ever by an Indian company. Strangely Corus is around 4.5 times the size of Tata Steel. Tata Steel is going to pay around $ 11 billion to become the world's 5th largest in terms of steel output. This did not come as easily as said. First Tatas gave a bid in October'06 to buy Corus. When all of us were happy that the deal will go through, there came the Brazilian company Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) outbidding Tatas. It led to a round of revisiting of bids by both the companies . Both of them were given Jan 30 as the last date to give their finalised bid. As both the companies were very keen on the acquisition, it was later decided that there will be an auction consisting of 9 rounds. Though nothing much happened in the initial 2 rounds, at the end Tata managed to outbid CSN by 5 pence a share to emerge the winner.

The merger of Arcelor and Mittal steel kickstarted the consolidation in the steel industry, where the market is very fragmented. Even after the Tata-Corus deal, the top 5 companies command only 20% market share. Hence there are possibilities of much more M&A s possible in the coming years.

One more great news to us is the Century scored by Sachin Tendulkar. He shut the mouths of his critics by scoring a hundred of just 76 balls. A huge six over the mid wicket was the image of the day. The ball never returned. Deservingly, Sachin was both man of the match and man of the series. Let us hope that we see Sachin at his prime in the upcoming world cup.

India is proceeding in the right direction. Way to go !!!!!!!!!!! Come on India dhikadho

Execution "Unfortunate" it seems

2006-12-30T13:14:00.000+05:30

New Delhi has called Saddam's execution as "unfortunate" and "disappointing". I guess we are talking about the death of a murderer who killed innocent people for his selfishness and not about somebody who served people. But what we forget is that 3 bags of skulls and skeletons of little children have been found in Noida. It was found that these children were sexually abused before being killed. It is really more unfortunate than Saddam's execution. When will we realise our priorities ? I hope the government knows about this incident. Please wake up guys. Know your duties. Give importance to issues that affect the common man more than the political issues.

Of course Saddam is punishable, but how innocent are you?

2006-12-30T10:02:00.000+05:30

Orkut is under construction. So I have to do something else online. I better write a blog on something that I wanted to write for a long time.

Now that Saddam Hussein has been executed by the so called "Iraqi" Government which I dont agree with, lets look at the issue from my perspective.

Of course he killed innocent civilians and committed brutal murders. He raped young girls who visited Iraq. But what did u do? You killed more people than he did and you have made a bad country worse which is killing itself with civil wars. Who gave you the authority to go and raid Iraq? Is it because of your money? Time will decide the worth of your currency. It is not long before your currency will be treated like toilet paper. Your so called "dominance in the world" will be shattered in another few years.

You claimed that there were weapons of mass destruction at Iraq. So you brought in some (not some, very huge amounts) weapons of mass destruction to Iraq to counter them. But I am sorry, you have not found any weapon of mass destruction. You killed whomever you wanted to by linking him with Saddam. You destroyed the whole country of Iraq. Can you give back life to those innocent millions of people who lost their life just because they were in Iraq.

You supported Saddam when you wanted him to counter Iran. But when he stopped doing that, you go back and stab him to death. You are very good at this art.

I am glad that your country is being served by a "good and intellectual" person as the chief. As long as your country has such a person, no weapons of mass destruction is required. He will take care.

Im leaving for now, waiting for another opportunity for orkut to go under construction.

INDIA WINS ATLAST

2006-12-21T09:29:00.000+05:30

Now here I am, pressing F5 every 30 seconds, waiting for Indian Institute of Foreign Trade(IIFT) results, I have nothing more interesting than to write a blog. India has at last won a test in South Africa(We have won in Australia but not in South Africa) . The good point in this victory was that, we cannot pinpoint on a particular player to have won the match singlehandedly. It was more of a team effort that paid India the goods. Let us now look at the individual performances of the match.

Sourav Ganguly:

The comeback man, who played with guts in the game scored a 51* in the first innings. The very fact that he ran out of partners shows his grit and determination.

VVS Laxman:

The man who demolished the Aussies is now back to torment the South Africans. His technique is very good and he is the man for our middle order. His 75 in the second innings helped us stretch our lead to more than 400, an important psychological barrier.

Sreeshanth:

This dancer boy from Kerala showed us the character to be shown on these kind of pitches. He never gives up . His 5-wicket haul in the first innings virtually sealed the match in our favour.

Sachin Tendulkar:

Our Master batsman showed hints of his old form during his first innings knock of 44. Lets see how he performs in the rest of the series.

I am looking forward to good knocks from Sehwag and Dravid. They are due for a long time.

Dhoni has to play his role of a cameo like a quickfire 70-80.

Zaheer and Kumble are bowling well and if they continue so, India has the chance to win the test series.

Come on INDIA dhikado !!!!!!!!

The Master is Back!!!

2006-09-14T22:20:00.000+05:30

The Master Blaster Sachin Tendulkar blasted his way to his 40th one day century in the comback game and once again proved that he is truly a master. The way he hit those cover drives and pull shots made his critics run for cover. However it was tough luck that Windies were awarded the game according to Duckworth-Lewis method inspite of the fact that the game could have gone anywhere in the next 30 overs.

Tendulkar began his innings in a not so great manner with a few nicks and edges. That was understandable because he is back from an injury and also that the pitch favoured low bounce. But once he got his eye in, he showed to us why he is Tendulkar. He increased his strike rate as the innings progressed and ended up scoring 142 off just 148 balls with 13 fours and 5 sixes. The 3 cover drive sixes were just examples of his genius. It is worthy mentioning that he batted through the entire 50 overs without any big strain. That he is able to bat through 50 overs comfortably shows that he has completely recovered from the injury.

Long live Tendulkar!!!Long live thy cricketing career!!! Long Live thy centuries!!!

(Looking forward to writing another blog on his 41st ODI century in the next match against the Aussies)

BLOGS BLOCKED

2006-07-18T19:21:00.000+05:30

I am here to express my anger at the Dept. of Telecommunications(DoT) since they have blocked most of the blogsites including blogspot which most of us use. They claim that thay have blocked the blog sites because terrorists apparently used some of these blog sites. So what! If some terroroists use an e-mail client, will they ban those sites too. If some terrorists eat 5-Star will they ban 5-Starts altogether? Those in charge of this should bring in some rational thinking rather than taking illogical idiotic decisions. I am now viewing my own blog through proxy servers. The DoT should rather try to improve their infrastructure than acting as a censor board. I hope I made myself clear. Looking forward to some better decisions from the DoT.

Zizou - Your Head-Butt rocks

2006-07-16T22:25:00.000+05:30

This may be a belated blog on this topic. Better late than never. I am one of the very few people who support the Head - Butt of Zidane. Who will not do it if his/her Mother and sister were insulted by a stupid opponent in a soccer game? I feel that Materazzi should also have been given a red card for provoking Zidane to do what he did. But looking at the result, had Zidane controlled his emotions, he could have taken his team to glory. He could have signed off in style. He could have taken the World cup to his country with his final game. That would have been a fitting finale for this great footballer. Who can forget the way he played against Brazil and his penalty kicks against Portugal and Italy. He has to be appreciated for the fact that he took his team to the final which was not even expected to go to the second round. "The Golden Ball" is a fitting consolation for what happened to him. We should only pity him and not say that he is arrogant . This is an example of what will happen to even the best of players if they dont control their emotions even for valid reasons. So keep your cool guys and never ever lose your temper. I guess I am giving a lot of advice and I will stop it. So bye now, will try to get back to blogging as soon as possible.

INDEX OF SITES THAT I RECOMMEND

2006-05-18T00:42:00.000+05:30

I have created a page that lists out the links to sites that I have visited . U can visit this page and check out on these cool links.

VOTE PEOPLE VOTE

2006-05-04T23:40:00.000+05:30

This is my second blog after the first one I wrote about 2 months ago. I never found time to sit and write my second blog and at last here it is. I was contemplating on to which should be my blog about, whether the death of the great charismatic leader Mr.Pramod Mahajan (or) the brutal murder of Engineer Suryanarayana by the Taliban (or) the Vadodhara riots where a person was burnt alive inside his car (or) the ever soaring Indian stock market which is surpassing all its records and closing at all-time highs daily. But finally, Tamilnadu Politics gets the priority and everything else takes a back seat.

This is the first ever election in the history of the state (as far as i know) in which the two opponents DMK (along with Congress, PMK, CPI, CPI (M) and Muslim League) and AIADMK are equally likely to form the government. This is the election which has seen the entry of "Captain" Vijayakanth into an already confused State politics. This election has most freebies from all the ends (DMK-Colour TVs and 2 Acres land, ADMK-10 Kg Rice, gold for mangalyam and Vijayakanth-door delivery of 15Kg of rice and 500 for provisions.).

The DPA(Hereafter referred to as DMK+) has definitely lost some of its support which it had during the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections the chief reason being the lessons learnt by the ruling AIADMK after its poll debacle in 2004. The Vaiko factor is also going to haunt the DMK+ as it was not able to hold on to its wining ally. The AIADMK has definitely gained a lot in the past 2 years by reverting on its policies like Anti Conversion Law and Softening its stand towards the Government employees. Captain Vijayakanth is definitely making a difference this time even if not in terms of the no. of seats his party wins but his sheer potential to change the winner in closely fought constituencies. This election has also seen the entry of "LOK Parithran"(LP), a party formed by a group of IIT-ians who have left their million dollar jobs to fight for good governance. First of all I would like to congratulate them for their bold initiative to bring in young, educated, saner brains into Indian politics. And Actor Karthick is also trying his luck this time by joining the All India forward Block and is expected to hamper ADMK more than DMK.

Crucial aspects of this election:

1. The Vijayakanth Factor:

Nobody knows what his exact vote bank is, but his party is expected to garner a handful of votes enough to spoil DMK's chances in areas like Madurai and Theni. His voters are expected to be more of previous DMK voters than previous ADMK voters. According to opinion polls he is expected to get 5% of the votes but my gut feel tells it will be more than that. This might become a blessing in disguise for ADMK. He might also get votes from people who are pissed off with both DMK and ADMK.

2. Change in stance of Jayalalithaa regarding Rice:
Jayalalithaa strongly opposed DMK's 1 Kg Rice for Rs.2 by saying that it is not feasible. But she quickly changed her stance @ Andipatti promising 10 Kg Free rice for every home. This might bring down her credibility and can even help Vijayakanth or the DMK.

Effects of the Result:

1. On the DMK:
Winning the Assembly Elections will help DMK establish itself better @ the Centre. Whereas losing this election will make DMK lose some of its importance @ the Centre.

2. On the ADMK:
If Jayalalithaa manages to win this election she will be next to only MGR to have successfully defended the post. Losing this will be a big blow because the party has the support of Maximum Film stars, has managed to bring in Vaiko and has also improved its Chemistry with the people.

3. On Vijayakanth (DMDK):
This is the debut elections for our Captain. Even if he manages to capture very few seats this time, it is a laudable effort considering the fact that he floated his party hardly a year ago. He has a long way to go unless and until his party loses in all the constituencies.

4. On MDMK:
If AIADMK loses this election, then the decision to leave the DPA would have backfired for the MDMK. It will lose its credibility with ADMK and its vote bank also will start diminishing. So this election holds the future of MDMK in a big way.

5. On Lok Parithran:
It will be good for the country if at least one of these candidates win. Getting back their deposits should enable them to come back strongly next time (May be Lok Sabha) by contesting in more seats.

6. On the People:
This election will showcase how many people from Tamilnadu want freebies and how many want good governance.

This is a once in a 5-year chance to give the mandate. So people even if u don't want to vote for anybody in your constituency, choose the "None of the Above" option, which will reflect people's dissatisfaction in the past governments.

THE GROWTH OF INDIAN STOCK MARKETS

2006-03-08T22:34:00.000+05:30

The benchmark 30 share SENSEX (Sensitive Index) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) crossed 10000 for the first time ever and celebrated Valentine’s Day a week earlier on February 7th 2006.

The BSE Sensex is a weighted index of India’s top 30 largest and most actively traded stocks on the BSE. The 30 stocks represent various sectors like IT, Pharmaceuticals, Banking, FMCG, Metals, Oil, and Automobiles amongst others. Stocks like Infosys, Reliance, ONGC, SBI etc. form a part of the Sensex.

The Indian Markets have been on a bull run* for the past 2 years. Sensex first hit the 6000 Mark in January 2004 and since then there has been no looking back. It had a few hiccups when Congress came to power in May 2005 when Sensex stooped to a low of 4500.

It is remarkable that the market which was once in the hands of people like Harshad Mehta (early 90s) and Khetan Parekh (2000-01) who were manipulating stock prices for personal gains, has recovered from the lows and it now represents India’s economic growth and the strong fundamentals which have been laid by our PM Dr. Manmohan Singh when he was the Finance minister during Mr.P.V.Narasimha Rao’s tenure.

AN INSIDE VIEW ON THE STOCKS AND CAPITAL MARKETS

“Putting money in stock markets is investment and not gambling”

What are stocks (shares)?

Stocks are issued by a company to raise capital for its operations or expansions. When a person buys some shares of a company, he partially owns the company.

What can a person do with shares?

A person who holds the shares of a company has to find the right time when the price is high to sell-out and make profits. If the person sells his shares when prices are low, he ends up losing money.

Where can we buy/sell (trade) shares?

Stocks are traded at stock exchanges and the most prominent of them are Bombay stock exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Why do stock prices go up/down?

When more people want to buy the shares of a company, i.e when the company is performing well, the share prices tend to go up. This happens because when there are more buyers than sellers, the supply is lesser than demand and the sellers sell at higher prices since buyers will want to buy shares even if they are highly priced. Similarly when more people want to sell the shares, the share prices go down since supply is more and demand is less.

How can one gain money from markets?

The ideal strategy would be to buy at lower levels i.e when the share prices go down and to sell at higher levels i.e when the share prices go up.

What should we do to trade shares?

Any person of age 18 and above can trade shares. The person needs to have a trading account as well as a demat account. The trading account is used to buy/sell shares. The demat account holds all the shares bought by the person.

What should one do to avoid loss?

Stocks should be bought on the basis of their fundamental value and not their short term price movement. NEVER buy penny stocks** neither because they go up daily for a few weeks nor that they are cheap. That is a sure shot way to lose money. You never know when they’ll start crashing down.

What if the shares bought by me go down in price?

Patience is the word for you if you have bought fundamentally good companies and there is no need to worry. In short term the markets may have wild swings but it the long term the markets tend to be stable. If you have bought “not so good” shares please sell them off immediately because there is a possibility of the capital being eroded completely.

Future Prediction:

The Indian markets have never gone up so consistently and they are expected to grow @ 30% annually, provided the companies give good results. If they continue to do so, the Sensex will probably hit the 30000 mark at the end of the year 2010. The Great Indian Story has just begun.

Bottom-line:

Stock markets are not for the faint hearted. So if you cannot afford that extra bit of risk in the short term, kindly avoid the stock market. You have other risk free options like Bank deposits, Post Office deposits amongst others.

Starred Terms:

* Bull Run: When the markets go up consistently over a long period they are said to be on a bull run. When the markets go down consistently over a long period they are said to be on a bear run.

** Penny Stocks: This term was originally coined in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to denote stocks whose price is lesser than 1$.In India they are the stocks whose price is less than Rs.10. These companies don’t have strong fundamentals and their prices move by mere speculation. You have more to lose than gain here.