VOTE PEOPLE VOTE

This is my second blog after the first one I wrote about 2 months ago. I never found time to sit and write my second blog and at last here it is. I was contemplating on to which should be my blog about, whether the death of the great charismatic leader Mr.Pramod Mahajan (or) the brutal murder of Engineer Suryanarayana by the Taliban (or) the Vadodhara riots where a person was burnt alive inside his car (or) the ever soaring Indian stock market which is surpassing all its records and closing at all-time highs daily. But finally, Tamilnadu Politics gets the priority and everything else takes a back seat.

This is the first ever election in the history of the state (as far as i know) in which the two opponents DMK (along with Congress, PMK, CPI, CPI (M) and Muslim League) and AIADMK are equally likely to form the government. This is the election which has seen the entry of "Captain" Vijayakanth into an already confused State politics. This election has most freebies from all the ends (DMK-Colour TVs and 2 Acres land, ADMK-10 Kg Rice, gold for mangalyam and Vijayakanth-door delivery of 15Kg of rice and 500 for provisions.).

The DPA(Hereafter referred to as DMK+) has definitely lost some of its support which it had during the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections the chief reason being the lessons learnt by the ruling AIADMK after its poll debacle in 2004. The Vaiko factor is also going to haunt the DMK+ as it was not able to hold on to its wining ally. The AIADMK has definitely gained a lot in the past 2 years by reverting on its policies like Anti Conversion Law and Softening its stand towards the Government employees. Captain Vijayakanth is definitely making a difference this time even if not in terms of the no. of seats his party wins but his sheer potential to change the winner in closely fought constituencies. This election has also seen the entry of "LOK Parithran"(LP), a party formed by a group of IIT-ians who have left their million dollar jobs to fight for good governance. First of all I would like to congratulate them for their bold initiative to bring in young, educated, saner brains into Indian politics. And Actor Karthick is also trying his luck this time by joining the All India forward Block and is expected to hamper ADMK more than DMK.

Crucial aspects of this election:

1. The Vijayakanth Factor:

Nobody knows what his exact vote bank is, but his party is expected to garner a handful of votes enough to spoil DMK's chances in areas like Madurai and Theni. His voters are expected to be more of previous DMK voters than previous ADMK voters. According to opinion polls he is expected to get 5% of the votes but my gut feel tells it will be more than that. This might become a blessing in disguise for ADMK. He might also get votes from people who are pissed off with both DMK and ADMK.

2. Change in stance of Jayalalithaa regarding Rice:
Jayalalithaa strongly opposed DMK's 1 Kg Rice for Rs.2 by saying that it is not feasible. But she quickly changed her stance @ Andipatti promising 10 Kg Free rice for every home. This might bring down her credibility and can even help Vijayakanth or the DMK.

Effects of the Result:

1. On the DMK:
Winning the Assembly Elections will help DMK establish itself better @ the Centre. Whereas losing this election will make DMK lose some of its importance @ the Centre.

2. On the ADMK:
If Jayalalithaa manages to win this election she will be next to only MGR to have successfully defended the post. Losing this will be a big blow because the party has the support of Maximum Film stars, has managed to bring in Vaiko and has also improved its Chemistry with the people.

3. On Vijayakanth (DMDK):
This is the debut elections for our Captain. Even if he manages to capture very few seats this time, it is a laudable effort considering the fact that he floated his party hardly a year ago. He has a long way to go unless and until his party loses in all the constituencies.

4. On MDMK:
If AIADMK loses this election, then the decision to leave the DPA would have backfired for the MDMK. It will lose its credibility with ADMK and its vote bank also will start diminishing. So this election holds the future of MDMK in a big way.

5. On Lok Parithran:
It will be good for the country if at least one of these candidates win. Getting back their deposits should enable them to come back strongly next time (May be Lok Sabha) by contesting in more seats.

6. On the People:
This election will showcase how many people from Tamilnadu want freebies and how many want good governance.

This is a once in a 5-year chance to give the mandate. So people even if u don't want to vote for anybody in your constituency, choose the "None of the Above" option, which will reflect people's dissatisfaction in the past governments.