Saturday, May 23, 2009

Why should the US Govt just let the recession continue rather than meddling with it?

To understand this we need to know about the history of US consumer spending. The US in the past 10-15 years has been a borrow and spend economy, evident from their evergrowing National debt. For every 100$ earned, they have been spending 107$. The remaining 7$ gap is bridged by other countries.( I shall explain this in a later article.) We all know this model is unsustainable, since one can’t keep spening more than one’s income. The house bubble burst was the trigger(not the cause) for this impending recession.

Now after the bubble burst, the US consumer has understood that he can’t keep spending more than his income and hence has cut down on his spending, which is actually good for both the US and the rest of the world. Since this cutting down has happened at a rapid pace, the recession is equally harsh and has its repurcussions in the way of Job losses and monetary losses.

What is the US Government doing now? They have cut down interest rates to almost 0% (a mistake they did in 2001 which led to the house market bubble) and are spending like crazy in the economy in the name of their stimulus plan. This is merely encouraging the consumer, who now has consciously cut down his spending, to spend more. This not only increases future recession possibilities but also increases inflation risk a lot.

My bottomline : The US Govt is again trying to interfere with the market to create skewed incentives for borrowers and is taking the economy to a yet another unstable period of growth rather than letting the economy recede and start stable growth without debt burden.

1 comment:

Parul said...

You must be aware of Peter Schiff by now. He has explained it in much better way.